Disclaimer: I have no idea when the next iPhone will be released. All of my views are based on pure speculation, so don’t get mad when I’m wrong.
That said, I do have some ideas about when it SHOULD be released. No earlier than 2010, on the third anniversary of the iPhone. There are two reasons that stick out specifically as to why the iPhone shouldn’t be released until then: money and community growth.
Money
It just wouldn’t make sense for Apple to come out with another iPhone in 2009. They’ve already made the early adopters change phones twice (early adopters likely bought the first and second generations of the iPhone) and coming out with a third phone, for the third year in a row, wouldn’t ensure that all of those original early adopters would spend money on yet another phone.
Unless it had some serious upgrades/updates – Flash or Silverlight for Mobile Safari, faster CPU, and most definitely: more memory – there would be no overarching reason for the masses to buy a third generation iPhone. I don’t see these upgrades coming in 2009 when their second generation iPhone is still in the process of reaching worldwide adoption. Sales are still strong.
Community Growth
The second reason that the third generation iPhone shouldn’t come out until 2010 is that the community is still growing, and all the developers are still working to get wrap their heads around the iPhone SDK. Granted, there are lots of developers that find iPhone development very simple due to their background in Mac development, but a large majority of the iPhone developers are completely new to Mac development – some of them completely new to Apple products at all. Apple needs to give the community time to stretch the potential of the current iPhone hardware and operating system.
My vote for the name of a 2010 iPhone would be the iPhone Xg. The X would stand for the 10 in 2010, as well as representing the upgrade in Xperience since the iPhone Xg would obviously have Flash, Silverlight, and a full fledged web browser. The g is lowercase to determine a distinction between the mobile standard ‘3G’ and the name of the phone Xperience generation.
Make it happen, Apple.
UPDATE: I found out that I’m wrong. For sure. Read: Hypocriticizer Anonymous
14 Comments
I don’t agree with you… Mobile phone market is characterized by short-life cycle and extremely high competition. Iphone is still attractive for many users but Nokia, Samsung, LG and HTC have presented some new phones that can partially meet the technology gaps with the Apple’s device. In addition, these products are more flexible and consolidated than Iphone. Apple has three possibilities to achieve its marketing and sales strategies: First, it can reduce prices to 299$ 399$; Second, it can improve memories as in the past but still reducing prices; Third, it can present a new revolutionary devices to re-establish its Hi-Tech leader position. My ideas is that Apple will present the third iphone generation in January, starting shipping by Summer 2009.
Yes, you could be correct. I agree that the other players in the industry are partially filling the technology gap, but I think that Apple is still setting the bar very high for those other companies – so high in fact that iPhone sales continue to climb. While the hype currently is that there will be a contender for the iPhone (Blackberry Storm, Android phones), many of the possible contenders haven’t actually been released yet, or started selling. I think Apple will choose to be patient and wait and see how the market reacts. Regardless, it’s a very exciting time and we’ll soon see what happens! Thanks for your comment.
I disagree with you as well. Mostly because you mention the incorporation of silverlight or flash. Id Apple were to include one of the two I’m sure it would be flash, not silverligh, as it is a (useless) microsoft plug-in. I don’t think that this would require a hardware update as it is all software based.
Also, there is a huge demand for an iPhone that doesn’t suck. Batteries, that is. They have a serious problem on their hands with the battery life being about a day for the average user and now the UK will not allow them to sell a phone that does not have an easily swappable battery ( http://www.intomobile.com/2008/10/08/eu-directive-could-force-apple-to-change-iphone-battery-design.html )
I think that alone is reason enough to release a new model. That and the fact that apple doesn’t particularly care for their customers being early adopters or not. Every year they release a new iPod and every year people keep buying them.
Actually I think it will be called the iPhone Wi-Net, with the nickname “Wi-Phone”.
I also disagree due to these reasons:
1.The iPhone is a very succesful device and has a few competitors. why would they wait and leave the door wide open for those competitors to take advantage of it and take in more customers, this would make apple loose money.
2. Since the original iPhones customers contract was two years long, apple and AT&T would want to have those customers buy from them again since their contract expired, instead of letting them take their buisness elswere.
3. and think about it…. It’s just good buisness…. Because every minute that apple isn’t selling the newest and greatest thing, they are loosing money…. Because sooner or later the iPhone 3G will be old news.
These are the top 3 reasons that I disagree with the iPhone Xg statement…
PS: I wrote this from my iPhone 3G.
I disagree with you as well because of what previous people have said. Apple will most likely come up with some sort of iPhone advancement in 2009. Other phone companies are working as I type to come up with some sort of gadget to top Apple’s bestseller that is bound to put everyone else out of business in a decade or so. Apple needs to stay on top of their game in order to stay on top of the selling charts.
As a consumer looking to buy an iPhone for the first time, I am also WISHING that they would come out with an iPhone in 2009 as well. I would not appreciate it if I bought the current iPhone 3G and then have Apple release the ‘latest and greatest’ iPhone a few months afterword.
I totally agree with the majority of the people whom disagree. I was never greedy to buy an iPhone when I had my phone and my itouch. However, this year I felt an urge to purchase one. Knowing Apple, I’m deciding to wait until they come out with the new iPhone. People like me don’t have the patience to wait another year for a new phone to be released. That is why Apple should release their third generation ASAP in 2009, that means more business for them from people like me.
I agree with the author. So far, the first one who disagreed already proved to be wrong
He said that by January of 2009 a new iphone would be launched and set for release by summer of ‘09. Not happening 
The reason I also agree with the author is, I have a friend who works for an Apple contracted vendor, and he told me that the next gen iphone will be released in 2010, not 2009. Although I do hope that Apple would at least release a firmware update that would include copy/paste, SMS forwarding, and a landscape keyboard on SMS.
sigh…. i want to get an iphone, but just worried that a new one will release not long after i get one… and i would be locked in the contract for 2 years…
what should i do……
I’m right there with you BJ. I almost bought a IPhone 3G yesterday, and may still go get it today. I’m so affraid that when the 3.0 upgrade comes out in June, the “new IPhone” will shortly follow. The timing of the upgrade may just be there to keep current contracted 1st gen and 3G owners happy. But if they are always going to release a new IPhone every year, might as well just get one, then in two years, get the one they have out then.
I’m in the same boat as Kevin. I was going to get an iphone 3G this week but now don’t know what to think. If I wait I could get a better phone for cheaper but if apple keep bring out a new phone every year what’s the point in getting one unless your on a 12 month contract, o get the up grade.
i agree with the last two comments of getting a new iphone every second year cause only a fool would upgrade every year
i have a iPhone 3G at the moment and was looking for a second 16gb one but i searched up online and their rumors that a new one might be out this june since the other to iphones came out year after each other in june and all the apple ipod come out in august if u havent noticed.
Well, I agree with the people above me ^^
I live in the UK, my birthday is on the 7th of june and am told by many rumours that the “iPhone 3G Pro” will be unvieled in June in USA, released in July in USA then Months after released October in UK. I hope this is true but yet the months of waiting is painful. The iPhone 3G is tempting… But obviously a hard thing to make out…
Wait for iPhone 3G
Released USA-July UK-october/Unkown
This rumour of release date is due to the past generations of the iPhone and iPods gives some more evidence. But what if I didn’t get the iPhone 3G and “iPhone 3G Pro came out in 2010 summer? well it would be better but the thing is. No one knows but apple.
The next thing is. What if I bought a iPhone 3G and iPhone 3G Pro came out in october in UK. That thing is stopping me from buying the 3G and keeping me with my old Sony Erricson. ;l
Now that is the most bad thing.
You’re just pissed off because you have an iphone that wll soon be obsolete!
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